Learning occupants’ indoor comfort temperature through a Bayesian inference approach for office buildings in United States

A carefully chosen indoor comfort temperature as the thermostat set-point is the key to optimizing building energy use and occupants’ comfort and well-being. ASHRAE Standard 55 or ISO Standard 7730 uses the PMV-PPD model or the adaptive comfort model that is based on small-sized or outdated sample data, which raises questions on whether and how ranges of occupant thermal comfort temperature should be revised using more recent larger-sized dataset. In this paper, a Bayesian inference approach has been used to derive new occupant comfort temperature ranges for U.S. office buildings using the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database. Bayesian inference can express uncertainty and incorporate prior knowledge. The comfort temperatures were found to be higher and less variable at cooling mode than at heating mode, and with significant overlapped variation ranges between the two modes. The comfort operative temperature of occupants varies between 21.9 and 25.4 °C for the cooling mode with a median of 23.7 °C, and between 20.5 and 24.9 °C for the heating mode with a median of 22.7 °C. These comfort temperature ranges are similar to the current ASHRAE standard 55 in the heating mode but 2–3 °C lower in the cooling mode. The results of this study could be adopted as more realistic thermostat set-points in building design, operation, control optimization, energy performance analysis, and policymaking

The GEMS Approach to Stationary Motions in the Spherically Symmetric Spacetimes

We generalize the work of Deser and Levin on the unified description of Hawking radiation and Unruh effect to general stationary motions in spherically symmetric black holes. We have also matched the chemical potential term of the thermal spectrum of the two sides for uncharged black holes.Comment: Latex file, 12 pages, no figure; v2: typos fixed; v3: minor corrections, final version published in JHE

The topologically twisted index of N=4\mathcal N=4 super-Yang-Mills on T2×S2T^2\times S^2 and the elliptic genus

We examine the topologically twisted index of $\mathcal N=4$ super-Yang-Mills with gauge group $SU(N)$ on $T^2\times S^2$, and demonstrate that it receives contributions from multiple sectors corresponding to the freely acting orbifolds $T^2/\mathbb Z_m\times\mathbb Z_n$ where $N=mn$. After summing over these sectors, the index can be expressed as the elliptic genus of a two-dimensional $\mathcal N=(0,2)$ theory resulting from Kaluza-Klein reduction on $S^2$. This provides an alternate path to the 'high-temperature' limit of the index, and confirms the connection to the right-moving central charge of the $\mathcal N=(0,2)$ theory.Comment: 29 pages, 1 figure; v2: restricted to real chemical potentials in section 4 and added a comment on the index where $c_r(\mathfrak n_a)<0$ in section

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty

Nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency in buildings: A case study of a nursing home

Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. We conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events